{"id":10982,"date":"2021-12-28T14:22:04","date_gmt":"2021-12-28T06:22:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jtcopper.com\/?p=10982"},"modified":"2021-12-28T14:22:27","modified_gmt":"2021-12-28T06:22:27","slug":"wai-mei-shen-guan-cha-2021-quan-qiu-tong-shi-hui-gu-ji-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.jtcopper.com\/hghy\/10982","title":{"rendered":"\u5916\u5a92\u6df1\u89c2\u5bdf|2021\u5168\u7403\u94dc\u5e02\u56de\u987e\u53ca2022\u5c55\u671b"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u94dc\u4ef7\u57282021\u521b\u6bcf\u542810476\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u56e0\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53cd\u5f39\u53ca\u94dc\u5e93\u5b58\u521b\u4e0b47\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u65b0\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5168\u7403\u9876\u7ea7\u94dc\u751f\u4ea7\u56fd\u667a\u5229\u548c\u79d8\u9c81\u7684\u4f9b\u7ed9\u6270\u52a8\u4ee5\u53ca\u62dc\u767b\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u8ba1\u5212\u4e5f\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u4e3a\u91d1\u5c5e\u94dc\u5e26\u6765\u52a8\u529b – \u94dc\u662f\u7eff\u8272\u80fd\u6e90\u8f6c\u578b\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u91d1\u5c5e\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u9ad8\u76db\uff08Goldman Sachs\uff09\u57285\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u79f0\u91d1\u5c5e\u94dc\u662f\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u201c\u65b0\u77f3\u6cb9\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u575a\u5b9a\u770b\u597d\u94dc\u5e26\u6765\u5229\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u6700\u5927\u7684\u94dc\u77ffKamoa Kakula\u9879\u76ee\u4e8e5\u6708\u5f00\u59cb\u6295\u4ea7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u52a8\u8361\u76842021\u5e74\uff0c\u94dc\u5e02\u573a\u4e5f\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u65b0\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4e0b\u9762\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u5171\u540c\u56de\u987e\u3002<\/p>\n

#1\u667a\u5229<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e16\u754c\u9876\u7ea7\u77ff\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u56fd\u667a\u5229\u51b3\u5b9a\u91cd\u5199\u76ae\u8bfa\u5207\u7279\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u5baa\u6cd5\uff0c\u8be5\u5baa\u6cd5\u652f\u6491\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fd1\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u77ff\u4e1a\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u5df2\u7ecf\u6279\u51c6\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u65b0\u7684\u7a0e\u6536\u548c\u7279\u8bb8\u6743\u4f7f\u7528\u8d39\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u52a0\u4ee5\u4fee\u6539\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u7ea6100\u4e07\u5428\u5e74\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u94dc\u9762\u4e34\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u7ea6\u5360\u5168\u7403\u94dc\u4f9b\u5e94\u91cf\u76844%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u9879\u7acb\u6cd5\u76ee\u524d\u9762\u4e34\u591a\u91cd\u7a0b\u5e8f\u969c\u788d\uff0c\u6700\u9ad8\u5c06\u5bf9\u94dc\u9500\u552e\u5f81\u6536\u8fbe75%\u7684\u7279\u8bb8\u6743\u4f7f\u7528\u8d39\uff0c\u4ee5\u652f\u4ed8\u793e\u4f1a\u9879\u76ee\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5305\u62ec\u5fc5\u548c\u5fc5\u62d3\uff08BHP\uff09\u5728\u5185\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u65b0\u589e\u6cd5\u6848\u5c06\u968f\u7740\u91d1\u5c5e\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u9500\u552e\u7a0e\u7b49\u7ea7\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u6253\u51fb\u540e\u7eed\u7684\u94dc\u77ff\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n

\u968f\u774012\u6708\u5de6\u7ffc\u603b\u7edf\u52a0\u5e03\u91cc\u57c3\u5c14\u00b7\u9c8d\u91cc\u65af\uff08Gabriel Boric\uff09\u7684\u5f53\u9009\uff0c\u8be5\u6cd5\u6848\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u6cd5\u5f8b\u3002<\/p>\n

35\u5c81\u7684\u524d\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7cfb\u5b66\u751f\u52a0\u5e03\u91cc\u57c3\u5c14\u00b7\u9c8d\u91cc\u65af\u5728\u7ade\u9009\u671f\u95f4\u53d1\u8a93\u8981\u57cb\u846c\u667a\u5229\u7684\u201c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u201d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4ed6\u540e\u6765\u8f6f\u5316\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8a00\u8bba\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4e00\u76f4\u575a\u6301\u8ba9\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u77ff\u4e1a\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u66f4\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u9ad8\u7a0e\u6536\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u80dc\u5229\u6f14\u8bb2\u4e2d\uff0c\u52a0\u5e03\u91cc\u57c3\u5c14\u00b7\u9c8d\u91cc\u65af\u91cd\u7533\u4ed6\u5c06\u53cd\u5bf9\u201c\u7834\u574f\u201d\u73af\u5883\u7684\u91c7\u77ff\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u6279\u51c6\u7684\u4ef7\u503c25\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4e89\u8bae\u6027Dominga\u94dc\u77ff\u548c\u94c1\u77ff\u77f3\u9879\u76ee\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6bc1\u706d\u4e16\u754c\u5c31\u662f\u6bc1\u706d\u6211\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u60f3\u8981\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u727a\u7272\u533a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u60f3\u8981\u7834\u574f\u56fd\u5bb6\u3001\u7834\u574f\u793e\u533a\u7684\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u8c61\u5f81\u6027\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u6765\u8bc1\u660e\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff1a\u62d2\u7eddDominga\u94dc\u77ff\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u667a\u5229\u7684\u94dc\u4ea7\u91cf\u57289\u6708\u4efd\u8dcc\u81f3\u4e03\u4e2a\u6708\u4f4e\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u52b3\u5de5\u4e2d\u65ad\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u9996\u90fd\u5723\u5730\u4e9a\u54e5\u9644\u8fd1Codelco\u7684Andina\u77ff\u8fd1\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u7f62\u5de5\u3002<\/p>\n

#2\u79d8\u9c81<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u90bb\u56fd\u79d8\u9c81\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5927\u94dc\u751f\u4ea7\u56fd\uff0c\u4e5f\u89c1\u8bc1\u4e86\u4e00\u4f4d\u65b0\u7684\u5de6\u7ffc\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\u3002<\/p>\n

6\u6708\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u515a\u4eba\u4f69\u5fb7\u7f57\u00b7\u5361\u65af\u8482\u7565\u8d62\u5f97\u4e86\u6f2b\u957f\u800c\u7d27\u5f20\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5361\u65af\u8482\u7565\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u5e0c\u671b\u901a\u8fc7\u63d0\u9ad8\u77ff\u4e1a\u7a0e\u7b79\u96c6\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u5c06\u5229\u6da6\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\u7ed9\u793e\u533a\uff0c\u5982\u4e2d\u56fd\u77ff\u4e1a\u96c6\u56e2\uff08MMG\uff09\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u62c9\u65af\u73ed\u5df4\u65af\uff08Las Bambas\uff09\u5927\u578b\u9879\u76ee\u5468\u56f4\u7684\u793e\u533a\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u533b\u7597\u548c\u6559\u80b2\u652f\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e9b\u627f\u8bfa\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5728\u7ecf\u53d7\u8003\u9a8c\uff0c\u5357\u90e8Las Bambas\u7684\u6297\u8bae\u548c\u5c01\u9501\u8ba9\u653f\u5e9c\u8c08\u5224\u4eba\u5458\u611f\u5230\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u8fd9\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u5f53\u5730\u793e\u533a\u4e0e\u91c7\u77ff\u90e8\u95e8\u4e4b\u95f4\u66f4\u4e3a\u7d27\u5f20\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728Chumbivilcas\u5730\u533a\u4e00\u6761\u4e3b\u8981\u8fd0\u8f93\u9053\u8def\u88ab\u5c01\u9501\u4e09\u5468\u540e\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f53\u5730\u793e\u533a\u4e0a\u5468\u8fbe\u6210\u4e86\u4e34\u65f6\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u8fd9\u51e0\u4e4e\u5bfc\u81f4\u751f\u4ea7\u5168\u7403\u7ea62%\u94dc\u7684Las Bambas\u94dc\u77ff\u5173\u95ed\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76ee\u524d\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u5ef6\u7eed\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6709\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5c01\u9501\u7684\u52bf\u5934\uff0c\u6279\u8bc4\u4eba\u58eb\u8bf4\uff0c\u5de6\u7ffc\u653f\u5e9c\u6ca1\u6709\u5151\u73b0\u5bf9\u652f\u6301\u5176\u7ade\u9009\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u77ff\u533a\u9009\u6c11\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u3002<\/p>\n

\u667a\u5229\u548c\u79d8\u9c81\u52a0\u8d77\u6765\u5360\u4e16\u754c\u94dc\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u8fd140%\u3002<\/p>\n

#3 Kamoa Kakula\u94dc\u77ff<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u867d\u71362021\u94dc\u5e02\u5728\u5357\u7f8e\u906d\u9047\u52a8\u8361\uff0c\u4f46\u827e\u68ee\u8c6a\u63d0\u524d\u6570\u6708\u5ba3\u5e03\u5728\u521a\u679c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5171\u548c\u56fdKamoa Kakula\u94dc\u77ff\u9879\u76ee\u5f00\u59cb\u884c\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n

Kakula\u662f\u7279\u8bb8\u7ecf\u8425\u533a\u5185\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u5ea7\u77ff\u5c71\uff0c\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u8868\u793a\u5728\u8fd0\u8425\u7684\u524d\u4e94\u5e74\u5185\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u94dc\u539f\u6599\u54c1\u4f4d\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u8fc76%\uff0c\u5e76\u6bcf\u5e74\u5c06\u4ea7\u751f380\u4e07\u5428\u77ff\u77f3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u827e\u68ee\u8c6a\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u5170\uff08Robert Friedland\uff09\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u8be5\u9879\u76ee\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5927\u94dc\u77ff\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u94dc\u77ff\u4e2d\u54c1\u4f4d\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u94dc\u77ff\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u5bb6\u603b\u90e8\u4f4d\u4e8e\u6e29\u54e5\u534e\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u8fd8\u7acb\u8a93\u8981\u6210\u4e3a\u8be5\u884c\u4e1a\u6700\u73af\u4fdd\u7684\u94dc\u77ff\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5c06\u52aa\u529b\u6210\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u9876\u7ea7\u94dc\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u51c0\u96f6\u8fd0\u8425\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

#4\u4e2d\u56fd\u6295\u8d44<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u56fd\u6bcf\u5e74\u6d88\u8017\u8fd11400\u4e07\u5428\u94dc\u77ff\u2014\u2014\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u603b\u548c\u3002\u4f46\u5305\u62ec\u5e9f\u6599\u5728\u5185\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u56fd\u5185\u4f9b\u5e94\u91cf\u4ec5\u4e3a200\u4e07\u5428\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u91c7\u77ff\u4ea7\u91cf\u591a\u5e74\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u505c\u6ede\u4e0d\u524d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728Wood Mackenzie LME\u8bba\u575b\u4e0a\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u6f14\u8bb2\u4e2d\uff0c\u94dc\u5e02\u573a\u7814\u7a76\u603b\u76d1\u5c3c\u514b\u00b7\u76ae\u80af\u65af\uff08Nick Pickens\uff09\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4e24\u5f20\u56fe\u8868\uff0c\u4ece\u4e0d\u540c\u89d2\u5ea6\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u94dc\u4f9b\u5e94\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fdb\u53e3\u7cbe\u77ff\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6765\u81ea\u975e\u6d32\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u7ea630\u5bb6\u77ff\u5c71\u7684\u7cbe\u77ff\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ea640%\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7ffb\u4e86\u4e00\u756a\u591a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fdb\u53e3\u91cf\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u521b\u4e0b\u65b0\u7eaa\u5f55\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81ea2010\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u91c7\u77ff\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u5916\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd8\u65a5\u8d44160\u591a\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u6536\u8d2d\u6d77\u5916\u94dc\u4e1a\u516c\u53f8\u548c\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5609\u80fd\u53ef\u5c06\u79d8\u9c81\u7684Las Bambas\u51fa\u552e\u7ed9MMG\uff0c2016\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u94bc\u4e1a\u4ee526.5\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u4ece\u81ea\u7531\u6e2f\u6536\u8d2dTenke Fungurume\u77ff\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7d2b\u91d1\u77ff\u4e1a\u4e0e\u4f0a\u4e07\u8c6a\u77ff\u4e1a\u5728\u5361\u83ab\u963f-\u5361\u5e93\u62c9\u77ff\u7684\u5408\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u4e09\u4e2a\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

#5 2022<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9884\u8ba1\u4f9b\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u9700\u6c42\u75b2\u8f6f\u5c06\u4f7f\u660e\u5e74\u7684\u94dc\u4ef7\u964d\u6e29\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9884\u8ba1\u4e2d\u56fd\u9700\u6c42\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u82f1\u7f8e\u8d44\u6e90\u96c6\u56e2\uff08Anglo American\uff09\u5728\u79d8\u9c81\u7684\u594e\u62c9\u97e6\u79d1\uff08Quellaveco\uff09\u77ff\u7b49\u4e1a\u52a1\u4f9b\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4f7f\u660e\u5e74\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4fdd\u6301\u4f4e\u8ff7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u94dc\u7684\u957f\u671f\u524d\u666f\u4ecd\u7136\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e\u4eca\u5e74\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u5e02\u573a\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5c06\u6682\u505c\u201dRefinitiv\u9ad8\u7ea7\u8d31\u91d1\u5c5e\u5206\u6790\u5e08Karen Norton\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u9884\u8ba1\u660e\u5e74\u94dc\u5c06\u51fa\u73b0\u9002\u5ea6\u76c8\u4f59\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9ad8\u76db\uff08Goldman Sachs\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u8a00\u8fc7\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u79f0\u7535\u52a8\u6c7d\u8f66\u3001\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u548c\u7535\u7f51\u6295\u8d44\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u548c\u673a\u68b0\u884c\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u653e\u7f13\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u963b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6839\u636e\u56fd\u9645\u94dc\u7814\u7a76\u96c6\u56e2\uff08International Copper Study Group\uff09\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u7684\u77ff\u5c71\u4f9b\u5e94\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u589e\u957f3.9%\uff0c\u8fbe\u5230\u8fd12200\u4e07\u5428\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u7cbe\u70bc\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u51fa\u73b032.8\u4e07\u5428\u7684\u76c8\u4f59\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u9884\u8ba1\u660e\u5e74\u9700\u6c42\u5c06\u4fdd\u6301\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u52302023\u5e74\u624d\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u76c8\u4f59\u3002\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u9884\u6d4b\u660e\u5e74\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u4ef7\u683c\u4e3a\u6bcf\u54289813\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c2023\u5e74\u4e3a\u6bcf\u54288375\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

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